Monday 8 June 2009

Election Results.

Now that the elections, both euro and local are behind us we can see how our local opinion poll matched up against the poll in the real world.

In our local poll the results were.

BNP 41%
Conservative. 17%
UKIP. 16%
Labour. 7%
Greens 4%
Lib-Dems 2%
Other 2%.


In the South West Region for the European election the result for the same parties was.

Conservative. 30.2%
UKIP 22.1%
Lib-Dems 17.2%
Greens. 9.3%
Labour 7.7%
BNP 3.9%

So beyond getting the Labour vote very nearly right our little local poll was not a very accurate indicator of the result in our wider region.

The electorate has now spoken and the Labour party has been given the expected hammering. In vote and percentage terms the Tories have hardly made massive gains and the Lib Dems seem to be stuck about where they were. I dont doubt that this is an accurate view of the state of play following the recent expenses scandal and from what I hear, a revulsion amongst many of its traditional supporters that the Labour party has now moved so far from its historic position as the party of the working class. Given that the main beneficieries of the revolt against the main parties has been UKIP, a party that does not fare so well at Westminster general elections the odds must be that much of the UKIP vote would go back to the Tories at the next election, but in the current climate, you couldnt risk too much money on it.

What is obvious is that the current government has no longer got the support or the policies necessary to get through to a general election next year. No change of leader of the labour party who would expect to become PM would be acceptable to the people. There must be a general election now !.

2 comments:

babyblox said...

Actually, if you ignore the BNP vote, which was probably down to one or two individuals casting multiple votes, the order of parties on your little poll was about right. With such a small sample, the percentages are never going to mirror those in a nationwide election, but given the scale of your poll, it proved fairly accurate. With regard to the future of the government, it is hard to see anyone with serious hopes of becoming Labour leader, such as Alan Johnson, wanting to take over from GB right now, only to get slaughtered at the election, whenever that may be. If I were Johnson, I would let GB go down with the ship and then contest the leadership. As for UKIP, Farage, interviewed on BBC immediately after the results were declared, said that his party (those not detained at Her Majesty's pleasure) intends to contest some 500 seats at the election. Traditionally there is a "flight to quality" at general elections and fringe parties lose their mid-term support, but there are not normal times.

Tobireg said...

Interesting, is it not, that nonbe of those who voted BNP seem to be brave enough to come on and explain their choice of party.

No one is going to challenge Brown and the current government could well limp on until next June.Inevitably there is going to be a mass slaughter of labour MPs whenever the election is held. holding off until next year only gives the Tories more time to organise. The current position of labour seems to be that things may only get better in the meantime. Or, from a cynical point of view it gives them more time to draw their parliamentary salaries and increase their pension pot.

As to UKIP, we shall have to wait and see, they have no great record of success at non european elections. Less so then the BNP, as far as I know.